UK Trade Wait-Time Index 2026 — How Long You'll Actually Wait
Average wait for a UK heat-pump install: 14 weeks. Average wait for a painter: 2 weeks. Capacity by trade ranked.
"A UK homeowner committing to a heat pump in April 2026 will wait until July 2026 for installation. The £7,500 grant is helping demand; the installer-supply pipeline has not kept pace."
— TradeMatch UK Editorial Team
How this study was carried out
TradeMatch tracked the lead-to-job-start cycle (homeowner posts job → tradesperson commits to start date) across 18,400 jobs between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026. Median wait time is the gap from "first quote accepted" to "tradesperson starts on site". Excludes design-led projects where wait reflects design rather than capacity.
Sample: 18,400 lead-to-job-start cycles across 48 UK trades, 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q1
What this study found
- UK homeowners now wait an average 14 weeks for a heat-pump install — the longest wait time of any common UK home trade
- The "renewables triad" (heat pump + solar + EV charger) all show capacity shortages relative to demand
- Decorating is the only common UK trade with sub-3-week median waits — capacity sits well above demand
- Wait times for major builds (extensions, loft conversions) typically extend further over peak summer months (Apr-Sep)
TradeMatch wait-time data, 18,400 job cycles, Q3 2025 to Q1 2026
| Trade | Median Wait (weeks) | 90th-Percentile Wait | Capacity Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat pump installer | 14 | 22 | Severe shortage |
| EV charger installer | 6 | 11 | Tight |
| Loft conversion specialist | 12 | 18 | Severe shortage |
| Extension builder | 10 | 16 | Tight |
| Solar PV installer | 8 | 14 | Tight |
| Gas engineer (boiler swap) | 5 | 9 | Moderate |
| Roofer (re-roof) | 6 | 11 | Moderate |
| Kitchen fitter | 7 | 12 | Moderate |
| Bathroom fitter | 5 | 9 | Moderate |
| Electrician (rewire) | 4 | 7 | Easy |
| Plumber (general) | 3 | 6 | Easy |
| Painter / decorator | 2 | 4 | Easy |
Why this matters
UK trade capacity has not kept pace with the post-2022 demand surge in renewable installations. Heat-pump wait times reflect the MCS certification bottleneck (6-12 months for an electrician or plumber to add the certification) plus the demand shock from the £7,500 BUS grant expansion in October 2023. The "easy" trades (decorating, general plumbing, electrics) have flat or slightly easier wait times than 12 months ago, suggesting demand is concentrated in capital-improvement and renewable-energy categories rather than maintenance and small jobs. Wait times also exhibit a 4-6 week peak-summer extension that the data here partially smooths.
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FAQ
Why is the heat-pump wait so long?
A combination of MCS-certified installer scarcity (only ~2,140 active UK installers) and the 38% year-over-year demand growth on the BUS grant. Each install also takes longer than a like-for-like boiler swap (5-7 days vs 1-2 days), compounding capacity strain.
How can a homeowner reduce wait time?
Multiple quotes — TradeMatch shows availability calendars on every installer profile. Off-peak booking (October-December has the shortest waits across most trades) typically cuts the median wait by 30-50%.
Which trades are getting harder to book?
Heat pump, loft conversion, EV charger and extension builder all extended their median wait by 2-4 weeks year-over-year. General plumbing, electrics and decorating did not.
Are these wait times typical of the rest of the UK's peers?
UK heat-pump wait times now exceed those in France, Germany and the Netherlands at the equivalent grant-uptake stage — the UK installer pipeline lags peer countries. CITB has flagged this as a workforce-policy concern.
Cite this study
Citation: TradeMatch UK (2026). UK Trade Wait-Time Index 2026 — How Long You'll Actually Wait. Available at: https://www.tradematch.uk/data/uk-trade-shortage-wait-times-2026
Granular data and per-postcode breakdowns are available to UK media outlets on request to [email protected]. Released under CC-BY 4.0 — re-use freely with attribution.
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