UK Tradesperson Age & Retirement Risk Index 2026
34% of UK plumbers and electricians are over 55 — the largest skills-cliff in 30 years is 7-10 years away
"The UK is on track for a 30,000-50,000 gas-engineer skills cliff in the early 2030s — at the exact moment the heat-pump rollout demands more skilled heating engineers than ever."
— TradeMatch UK Editorial Team
How this study was carried out
Combined ONS Labour Force Survey Q4 2025 SOC-2020 codes for trades + the TradeMatch active-trader registry of 110,400 unique IDs. Each ID was age-bucketed using either ONS-disclosed bracket or TradeMatch self-declared birth-year (where TradeMatch registration was used as the source). Retirement-risk scoring weights each over-55 ID at 1.0, 50-54 at 0.5, under 50 at 0.
Sample: ONS Labour Force Survey Q4 2025 + TradeMatch active-trader registry, 110,400 unique IDs
What this study found
- More than 1 in 3 UK plumbers, electricians and gas engineers are over 55 — the highest figure since the data series began
- The two newest trades (heat pump installers and EV charger installers) skew young — under 50 dominates 86% and 89% respectively
- Apprenticeship completion rates in plumbing and electrics fell 14% between 2018 and 2024 — the supply pipeline is not refilling at pace
- A "skills cliff" of 30,000-50,000 retiring UK gas engineers is forecast for 2030-2034 if current trends hold — at the same time the UK heat-pump rollout requires more, not fewer, heating engineers
ONS LFS Q4 2025 + TradeMatch registry, 110,400 unique trader IDs, March 2026
| Trade | % Over 55 | % Over 60 | Retirement-Risk Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas engineer | 38% | 21% | Critical |
| Plumber | 34% | 18% | Critical |
| Electrician | 34% | 17% | Critical |
| Roofer | 32% | 17% | Critical |
| Bricklayer | 31% | 16% | High |
| Plasterer | 30% | 15% | High |
| Carpenter | 28% | 14% | High |
| Painter / decorator | 27% | 13% | High |
| Tiler | 24% | 11% | Moderate |
| Kitchen fitter | 22% | 10% | Moderate |
| Heat pump installer | 14% | 6% | Low |
| EV charger installer | 11% | 4% | Low |
Why this matters
The UK trade workforce ages slower than the white-collar workforce because trades typically retire later (no occupational-pension push), but the post-2008 apprenticeship slowdown left a structural cohort gap. ONS, CITB and the IET have all flagged the issue; the 2026 figure is the largest "over 55" share recorded across plumbing and electrical work. Heat-pump and EV-charger installers are demographically younger because both trades effectively didn't exist as a category before 2010 (heat pump) and 2017 (mass-market EV charger). The training pipeline for both is partially supplied by mid-career re-skilling from gas engineers and electricians.
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FAQ
Where can I find the underlying ONS data?
ONS Labour Force Survey by SOC-2020 occupation code, public data set. The age-band cuts are quarterly published; the Q4 2025 release is the most recent at time of this study.
Is this a UK-wide problem or just England?
UK-wide. Scotland and Wales show similar age distributions; Northern Ireland is slightly younger (32% over 55 in plumbing vs 34% in England) due to higher historical apprenticeship intake.
What can policy-makers do?
Apprenticeship-funding levy reform (the current cap was last reviewed in 2017), targeted re-skilling grants for heat-pump certification, and immigration-route review for trades. CITB has published more detailed recommendations.
How does TradeMatch use this data?
We use age distribution to forecast the UK heat-pump-installer shortage, which informs our regional onboarding focus. The data is also published quarterly to UK media outlets covering housing-policy and skills-shortage stories.
Cite this study
Citation: TradeMatch UK (2026). UK Tradesperson Age & Retirement Risk Index 2026. Available at: https://www.tradematch.uk/data/uk-tradesperson-age-2026
Granular data and per-postcode breakdowns are available to UK media outlets on request to [email protected]. Released under CC-BY 4.0 — re-use freely with attribution.
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